Cards/Brewers Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers open a 3 game series in St. Louis tonight in a battle of 1st place teams in the NL Central. The Birds come in with a record of 4-6 in their last 10 games and the Brewers have been insanely hot as of late, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. In those last 10 games, the Cardinals have given up at least 5 runs or more in 8 of those games...that quality starting pitching the Birds had in April has been missing for most of May. Plus the loss of Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus and Chris Carpenter hasn't helped the situation. Kyle Lohse will be on the mound in the opener against Yovani Gallardo; Adam Wainwright, who just hasn't been himself so far this season will pitch on Saturday afternoon against former Redbird Jeff Suppan. And then in the finale, Todd Wellemeyer will be oppeosed by Manny Parra.

The Cards should take the 1st two games of this series - and let's hope so, Wellemeyer is just horrible.

Major League Baseball Scoreboard May 14

SCOREBOARD
Tigers (15-16) 5 at Twins (18-17) 6
W: Breslow (1-1) L: Seay (0-1) S: Nathan (6)

Mariners (16-19) 2 at Rangers (20-14) 3
W: Harrison (4-2) L: Morrow (0-3)

Marlins (17-18) 3 at Brewers (21-14) 5
W: Bush (2-0) L: Badenhop (2-2) S: Hoffman (8)

Dodgers (24-12) 5 at Phillies (16-16) 3 - F/10
W: Broxton (4-0) L: Durbin (1-1) S: Troncoso (2)

Red Sox (21-14) 4 at Angels (18-15) 5 - F/12
W: Bulger (1-1) L: Delcarmen (1-1)

Yankees (17-17) 3 at Blue Jays (23-14) 2
W: Sabathia (3-3) L: Carlson (0-2) S: Rivera (7)

Indians (14-22) 11 at Rays (3-4) 7
W: Carmona (2-4) L: Shields (3-4)

Padres (13-22) 3 at Cubs (20-14) 11
W: Dempster (3-2) L: Gaudin (0-3)

Orioles (15-20) 9 at Royals (18-17) 5
W: Guthrie (3-3) L: Meche (2-4)

Astros (16-18) 5 at Rockies (13-20) 3
W: Rodriguez (4-2) L: Hammel (0-2) S: Hawkins (5)

Cardinals (21-14) 5 at Pirates (14-20) 1
W: Miller (1-0) L: Karstens (1-2)

Mets (19-15) 7 at Giants (18-16) 4
W: Parnell (2-0) L: Wilson (2-1) S: Rodriguez (10)

HR LIST
Adrian Gonzalez (14)
Hank Blalock (10)
Chris Davis (10)
Prince Fielder (8)
Aubrey Huff (7)
Carlos Lee (7)
Ben Zobrist (6)
Bill Hall (4)
Hideki Matsui (4)
Alex Rios (4)
Shin-Soo Choo (4)
Billy Butler (3)
Colby Rasmus (2)
James Loney (2)
Ross Gload (1)
Drew Macias (1)

Indians Travel to Tampa for a 4 Game Set

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Cleveland Indians at Tropicana Field this weekend. These two teams are arguably two of the more disappointing teams in baseball so far this season. The Indians came into the 2009 season with the current Cy Young Award winner in Cliff Lee and also one of the top 5 overall talents in baseball, outfielder Grady Sizemore. But those two corner stone players has not constituted to success so far this year - the Indians are 13-22 and are in last place in the AL Central, 5 1/2 games behind division leading Kansas City Royals.

The Rays come into the 2009 season as American League Champions. And in my opinion, are much more of a disappointment than the Indians. The Rays have AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria, the best player in the playoffs in 2008, BJ Upton, and a starting staff with James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza - all 3 of these guys could be aces on over half the teams in the league. The Rays are 16-19 and sit 6 1/2 games back of AL East division leader Toronto Blue Jays.

I would expect the Rays to take 3 out of 4 in the series and hope to get back into this division race before the end of May.

Major League Baseball Scoreboard May 13

SCOREBOARD
White Sox (15-18) 0 at Indians (13-22) 4
W: Lee (2-5) L: Buehrle (5-1)

Braves (17-17) 8 at Mets (18-15) 7 - F/12
W: Bennett (1-1) L: Takahashi (0-1) S: Gonzalez (6)

Nationals (11-21) 6 at Giants (18-15) 3
W: Martis (5-0) L: Zito (1-3) S: Wells (2)

Cardinals (20-14) 2 at Pirates (14-19) 5
W: Ohlendorf (4-3) L: Pineiro (4-3) S: Capps (6)

Rays (16-19) 8 at Orioles (14-20) 6
W: Niemann (3-3) L: Bergesen (1-1) S: Howell (1)

Dodgers (23-12) 9 at Phillies (16-15) 2
W: Wolf (2-1) L: Moyer (3-3)

Yankees (16-17) 8 at Blue Jays (23-13) 2
W: Pettitte (3-1) L: Richmond (4-2)

Mariners (16-18) 5 at Rangers (19-14) 6
W: Wilson (2-2) L: Morrow (0-2)

Marlins (17-17) 6 at Brewers (20-14) 8
W: Looper (3-2) L: Nolasco (2-4) S: Hoffman (7)

Padres (13-21) 4 at Cubs (19-14) 6
W: Lilly (5-2) L: Young (2-2) S: Marmol (3)

Tigers (17-15) 10 at Twins (17-17) 14 - F/13
W: Crain (2-1) L: Lyon (1-3)

Astros (15-18) 15 at Rockies (13-19) 11
W: Hampton (2-3) L: Marquis (4-3)

Reds (20-14) 10 at Diamondbacks (13-22) 3
W: Cueto (4-1) L: Augenstein (0-2)

Red Sox (21-13) 4 at Angels (17-15) 8
W: Palmer (4-0) L: Wakefield (4-2)

Royals (18-16) 2 at Athletics (13-18) 7
W: Outman (1-0) L: Bannister (3-1)

HR LIST
Adrian Gonzalez 2 (13)
Ryan Theriot 2 (5)
Alfonso Soriano (11)
Raul Ibanez (10)
Jason Bay (10)
Brandon Inge (9)
Justin Morneau (9)
Rickie Weeks (9)
Torii Hunter (9)
Russell Branyan (8)
Miguel Cabrera (8)
Victor Martinez (7)
James Blake (7)
Mike Jacobs (7)
Chris Iannetta (7)
Ian Stewart (7)
Mike Napoli (6)
Jason Bartlett (5)
Brain Roberts (5)
Joe Crede (5)
Jason Kubel (5)
Josh Hamilton (4)
Jeff Larish (4)
John Baker (4)
Ryan Garko (2)
Ty Wiggington (2)
Felix Pie (2)
Martin Prado (2)
Gary Sheffield (2)
Fernando Tatis (2)
Adrian Beltre (2)
Kenji Johjima (2)
Jimmy Rollins (2)
Skip Schumaker (1)
Brett Gardner (1)
James Loney (1)
Chris Coghlan (1)
Geovany Soto (1)
Augie Ojeda (1)
Gerardo Parra (1)

Can Duke keep this up?

In 2005, the Pirates called up a 22-year old starter who had put up dazzling numbers in the minors. In his minor league career up to that point, he was 43-17 with a 2.38 ERA. That player was Zach Duke, who was selected in the 20th round of the 2001 draft.

When the Bucs called him up from AA-Altoona in July of 2005, he was in the midst of a dazzling season with the Curve where he was 12-3 with a 2.92 ERA. What followed his call-up was even more astounding than what one could expect from those minor league stats.

His major league debut went ok as he gave up 3 ER in 7 innings against Milwaukee as he didn't factor into the decision. However, he followed that up with 4 straight starts without giving up an ER. By the end of the season he had made 14 starts and finished with an 8-2 record and miniscule 1.81 ERA. The Bucs had finally found their ace.

Or did they? The next season, Duke was not nearly as effective as his rookie season. He finished 10-15 with a 4.47 ERA. Not a bad season, but not what the Bucs were hoping for. The next year was worse as he was 3-8 and his ERA had ballooned to 5.53. He was also injured and missed about 2 months of the season. After getting healthy again in 2008 he won only 5 of his 31 starts and finished with a 4.82 ERA.

At this point after the '08 season, it seemed like we would never see anything that would come close to Duke's 2005 season from him again. Duke had basically established himself as a below average major league starter and what seemed like a fourth or fifth starter on an average team.

Pirates' GM Neal Huntington made it known at the beginning of spring training that Duke was among one of the Pirates' pitchers whose spot in the rotation was not yet solidified. Duke pitched well enough in spring training to be named the team's #3 starter. His 3.86 ERA in the spring really didn't represent how well Duke actually pitched. That ERA is only that high due to one really bad start.

With that being said, Pirates fans really were not expecting anything spectacular from Duke this season. I was hoping he would be able to post better numbers than last season, but if I had to project his stats for the season, I would have said something like 8 wins and an ERA of 4.50 or so.

This season, Duke has shown a total resurgence. He has made 7 starts and has not allowed more than one run in 5 of those starts. His record stands at 4-3. His win total this year matches his total from 2008 and is one better than 2007. He's pitched into the 6th inning of every single start, which is huge considering how awful the bullpen is. So what's different about Duke this year from his past few?

First and foremost, he is walking fewer batters. He is currently walking 1.98 batters per 9 innings, which is the best number he's posted in his career.

He's also striking out more batters. That number stands at 5.04 K/9. That's the highest number he's had since his 2005 season. 5.04 still isn't very good, the major league average is 6.89. But is is still a significant improvement from his previous 3 seasons.

The reason why Duke's strikeout numbers are so critical to his success is that throughout his career, hitters are batting .325 against him when they put the ball in play. The average pitcher's BABIP is usually around .305 or so. Basically, for Duke, the less balls players can make contact on, the better. In 2005, Duke's BABIP was .296...which is better than average. This season, that number is at .261...which is great.

Another stat that looks to be significantly improved for Duke is his HR/9. Currently he gives up .54 HR/9, which is his lowest since 2005. He's also sporting his lowest WHIP ([walks+hits]/IP) of his career at 1.08.

So...back to the original question. Can Duke keep this up? What jumps out to me right now is that Duke's BABIP is currently at .261 when his career average is .325. Is it possible he can keep it that low? Yes. But it's not likely. I expect that to move back towards the mean a little.

Even though I see Duke's BABIP going up, I think he can continue to avoid walks, continue to strike out hitters at his current pace, and avoid giving up the long ball. If he keeps doing what he's doing in those areas, he will put together a solid season.

His ERA is currently sitting at 2.52. Expect that to ultimately make its way into the mid 3 range. And if Duke can pitch an entire season with an ERA around 3.50, the fans, the team, and myself will be extremely happy.

Duke is still just 26 years old, which means he's entering the prime of his career as a starting pitcher. Hopefully we are starting to see the beginning of a nice stretch from Duke. Who knows...maybe he'll be a main piece of the rotation by the time the team's "window" will be open.

[Stats taken from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference] [photo: Pittsburgh Sports Report]

Major League Baseball Scoreboard May 12

SCOREBOARD
Rays (15-19) 5 at Orioles (14-19) 7
W: Bass (2-1) L: Sonnanstine (1-4) S: Sherrill (6)

Cardinals (20-13) 1 at Pirates (13-19) 7
W: Duke (4-3) L: Wellemeyer (3-3)

White Sox (15-17) 7 at Indians (12-22) 4
W: Carrasco (1-0) L: Sowers (0-2) S: Jenks (8)

Dodgers (22-12) 3 at Phillies (16-14) 5
W: Park (1-1) L: Kershaw (1-3) S: Lidge (5)

Yankees (15-17) 1 at Blue Jays (23-12) 5
W: Halladay (7-1) L: Burenett (2-1)

Braves (16-17) 3 at Mets (18-14) 4 - F/10
W: Rodriguez (1-0) L: Bennett (0-1)

Mariners (16-17) 1 at Rangers (18-14) 7
W: Holland (1-1) L: Lowe (0-1)

Marlins (17-16) 3 at Brewers (19-14) 6
W: Parra (2-4) L: Koronka (0-1) S: Hoffman (6)

Tigers (17-14) 2 at Twins (16-17) 6
W: Slowey (5-1) L: Galarraga (3-3)

Padres (13-20) 2 at Cubs (18-14) 6
W: Harden (4-1) L: Peavy (2-5)

Astros (14-18) 1 at Rockies (13-18) 12
W: Jimenez (3-4) L: Paulino (1-3)

Reds (19-14) 3 at Diamondbacks (13-21) 1
W: Owings (3-3) L: Haren (3-4) S: Cordero (10)

Red Sox (21-12) 4 at Angels (16-15) 3
W: Ramirez (4-0) L: Shields (1-3) S: Papelbon (9)

Royals (18-15) 3 at Athletics (12-18) 12
W: Cahill (2-2) L: Hochevar (0-1)

Nationals (10-21) 7 at Giants (18-14) 9
W: Medders (2-1) L: Beimel (0-2)

HR LIST
Adam Jones 2 (8)
Prince Fielder 2 (7)
Jim Thome 2 (6)
Ian Stewart 2 (6)
Albert Pujols (13)
Adrian Gonzalez (11)
Aaron Hill (9)
Chris Davis (9)
Rickie Weeks (8)
Bengie Molina (8)
Mike Cameron (7)
Adam LaRoche (6)
Mike Jacobs (6)
Brandon Phillips (6)
JD Drew (5)
Brad Hawpe (5)
Jack Cust (5)
Milton Bradley (4)
Joe Crede (4)
Joe Mauer (4)
Todd Helton (4)
Josh Hamilton (3)
Jeff Larish (3)
Coco Crisp (3)
Nick Johnson (3)
Pablo Sandoval (3)
Jayson Nix (2)
Ramon Santiago (2)
Brandon Moss (1)
Bobby Scales (1)

29 Games and counting for Zimmerman

Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals has a 29 game hitting streak going into tonight's matchup versus the San Francisco Giants. Zimmerman will face Matt Cain tonight at AT&T Park in San Fran - Cain is 3-1 on the year with a 2.61 ERA. But this has not bothered Zimmerman at all through this streak. This hitting streak is legit - he has been getting hits in his 1st or 2nd at bat on a consistent basis every evening - the guy is just raking. The longest all time hitting streak is 56 games by Joe DiMaggio back in 1941. The NL record is held by Willie Keeler back in 1986/1897 - and the modern day NL record is held by Pete Rose when he had a hit in 44 consecutive games for the Cincinnati Reds and the Big Red Machine back in 1978.

If Zimmerman can get a hit tonight - he really has a chance to make this hitting streak go for a while more. His next few scheduled opposing pitchers are Barry Zito, Joe Blanton, Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer and Ross Ohlendorf. None of those guys are dominant - Ryan really has a chance to make this hitting streak national news if he can get this thing to 35 or more games.

With all that said - I love seeing history - and if there are no cancellations, rainouts, etc and he doesn't get injured or sit any games out - he would tie Joe Dimaggio's 56 game hitting streak on June 10th at home against the Cincinnati Reds and could break it on Sunday afternoon against the Reds. Think about that though - he still has to go another full month without a 0fer - and that is just crazy talk...but good luck to you Mr. Zimmerman - I'm rooting for you.

Major League Baseball Scoreboard May 11

SCOREBOARD
White Sox (14-17) 4 at Indians (12-21) 9
W: Pavano (3-3) L: Floyd (2-3)

Braves (16-16) 8 at Mets (17-14) 3
W: Lowe (5-1) L: Santana (4-2)

Reds (18-14) 13 at Diamondbacks (13-20) 5
W: Arroyo (5-2) L: Garland (3-2)

Nationals (10-20) 7 at Giants (17-14) 11
W: Johnson (3-3) L: Cabrera (0-4) S: Wilson (8)

HR LIST
Ryan Zimmerman 2 (8)
Mark Reynolds (8)
Justin Upton (7)
Josh Willingham
Felipe Lopez (4)
Laynce Nix (2)
Adam Rosales (2)
Ronnie Belliard (1)

Rays/O's Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays make a quick 2 game trip into Baltimore to take on the Orioles starting on Tuesday evening. The Rays are coming from Boston where they dropped 2 out of 3 in the series, but they had won 3 in a row before that. So they are finally showing signs of getting rid of that World Series hangover as they have played much better as of late. Andy Sonnanstine (1-3, 5.79) will take the hill in the opener for the Rays and will be opposed by Mark Hendrickson (1-4, 5.13). And in the finale, Jeff Niemann (2-3, 5.65) will toe the rubber for the Rays against Brad Bergesen (1-0, 4.98).

Cards/Pirates Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals will finish up their 6 game road trip with a 3 game series in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. The Cardinals just swept the Pirates in a 2 game series in St. Louis back on May 6th & 7th. The Cardinals will send Todd Wellemeyer (3-2, 4.75) to the hill in the opener against Zach Duke (3-3, 2.79). Wellemeyer was the National League pitcher of the month back in May 2008 - and the Redbirds are hoping he can continue that success in 2009. The Cardinals still lead the NL Central by 2 games over the Milwaukee brewers, but they are 4-5 so far this month.

The remaining pitching matchups for the series:

Wednesday May 13th

STL Joel Pineiro (4-2, 3.66)
vs.
PIT Ross Ohlendorf (3-3, 4.14)

Thursday May 14th

STL Mitchell Boggs (1-0, 3.50)
vs.
PIT Jeff Karstens (1-1, 5.19)